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Inter is a young team playing open football. One of the few opponents they're good against is Lokomotiva, as Inter has won all 5 mutual encounters. Lokomotiva's captain, defensive midfielder Zeljko Sopic, retired, and he was the only real player in the team. The rest is Dinamo Zagreb's youth. Holding midfielders are especially important in away matches. This run-n-gun style of Inter will now not be held back by anything and Lokomotiva will lose.
There's a reason why odds on over 2.5 are 2.20, and that's Split's defence. They rarely concede a goal, they have Ivica Krizanac (ex Zenit St.Petersburg) and they are confident both at home and away.
But, Inter will attack from the start as this is a derby match for the European place next season. Split has 43 points, Inter 41. If Inter fails to win, the dream is gone. Expect an all-out offense, and Split's defence WILL fail at least once.
Another thing to note is Inter's ability to concede goals late in the game. Whether they're winning or losing or drawing, it's likely they'll concede a goal in the 90th minute.
As far as I'm concerned, this match has Over written all over it.
Istra desperately needs the points here or they'll get relegated. Varazdin only cares about the cup, they are automatically in Europe because they've reached the cup finals against Dinamo, and Dinamo is already in Champions league.
Varazdin is a team in a strange state. They beat Cibalia 3:0 at home in front of a full stadium (rarity in Croatia) to progress to the cup finals, then the coach gave them four days off (!) and they lost to Lokomotiva at home 0:1. The players are also not getting any salaries and the future of the club is uncertain.
Varazdin has a star player in Davor Vugrinec, but he's a bit slow and he is playing best at the home pitch, where his team is dominant. Not a counter attacking guy.
Istra needs luck in order to score, but I guess they'll provoke the luck sufficiently to take this win and maintain the hope of staying in the top league. Varazdin won't mind the loss.
This will be an open match, both teams will score, and the match will end in either 2:1 or 1:2. The bookies have made a mistake here, and after giving us 2.05 for under 2.5 goals at home against Osijek (1:0), a match which was expected to be low-scoring, they decided to compensate, turn the things around, and say this will also be a low-scoring match because Dinamo is an underish team.
Dinamo won the championship four rounds before the end, and they have likely celebrated (perhaps they're still celebrating), and that could affect their performance here.
Sibenik is playing an open match, especially against Dinamo, and both teams will score. Dinamo doesn't play well lately as players don't run much, and they are in grave danger of dropping points at Subicevac. It wouldn't be the first time.
Value definitely lies at the home side. Odds are great.
Two things will happen if Zadar wins this match. Zadar will stay in the league, and Dragovoljac will be mathematically relegated three rounds before the end.
Zadar managed to beat high-flying Inter 1:0 at home in the last round and are likely to maintain the same level of performance, especially because they are connecting two home matches. I'm expecting a similar performance and a similar score. Zadar should win by 1:0 or 2:0, as Dragovoljac doesn't have enough quality and physical strength to stay calm at Zadar. Zadar will provoke defensive mistakes and it will be enough to grab the vital win.
In the earlier rounds, I was saying how Zadar usually "wakes up" in Spring and starts playing great, but that this year they forgot to wake up. Apparently, they didn't, they were only a bit late. They are flying high now and will keep producing good results until they reach the point where they can't be relegated anymore.
These two will also likely cancel each other out. Osijek is a solid team, but doesn't have the quality to be the favorite over Rijeka. And, Rijeka is a team which knows how to play when visiting, which is a rarity in Croatia. I'm expecting a slow match with a few goals, and the most likely result is 0:0.
Lokomotiva's last five matches produced a total of 3 goals, or 0.6 per match. They are in danger of getting relegated and they need this win, but it won't come easy. They will still be defensive because they know they can't score two goals and will be looking for the 1:0 victory or 0:0. The guests are more offensive than the hosts, but are also a primarily defensive team. They'll be happy with the boring 0:0 game and a point in Maksimir. They are not without their own set of motives, though. If they win here, they'll be only 4 points behind a place in Europe. I expect these two to cancel each other out, the match should end in 0:0, or one of the teams will win with a single goal. Under 1.5 is a good bet, but under 2.5 is almost a sure thing
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